Data-Driven Transitions: A co-created methodlogy

Planning for climate mitigation requires a flexible, iterative, and outcome-focused approach that connects ambitious plans with practical actions. Data-Driven Transitions describes a methodology and platform that enable cities to effectively manage the complexities of climate mitigation, empowering them to build, test, and track their strategies and progress. Essentially, this white paper takes cities through the full journey of implementing a climate transition.

For more details, download the Data-Driven Transitions white paper here.

One of the most challenging aspects of addressing climate change is having a compelling and ambitious vision for the future that is also realistic and achievable. Each planning process must integrate environmental, economic, and societal factors while often requiring authorities to make decisions using insufficient data or to wait until better data are available. To navigate these complexities, city officials need tools, approaches, and methodologies that will connect their ambitious visions with practical actions.

Backcasting is one such approach that involves setting a target first and working backwards to identify the steps and pace of change needed to achieve it. This method allows for testing various pathways and interventions, revealing how each step will impact resources and economic factors over time and allowing for adjustments as needed. Overall, backcasting is a strategic tool that shifts the focus from what is immediately feasible to what is ultimately necessary, driving a more ambitious, structured, and goal-oriented approach to climate mitigation planning.

The Outcome Logic model (see figure below) in Data-Driven Transitions supports the backcasting process through five layers that guide climate planning towards these future visions. It starts with Interventions—government actions like laws, investments, and strategies—which lead to measurable Attributes such as cycling infrastructure and fuel prices that shape the local environment. These attributes influence Behavioural Changes as people respond to perceptions of safety, convenience, and affordability, leading to Activity Shifts where high-carbon activities are replaced by lower-carbon alternatives. The resulting Outcomes include quantifiable environmental, social, and economic benefits, such as reduced emissions and cost savings.

Outcome Logic for impact-oriented climate planning, using the example of shifting from driving cars to cycling.

The core concept of the Outcome Logic model is the Activity Shift. A society is a hub of activities carried out by individuals and organisations to fulfil a need of that society (nourishment, shelter, transportation, etc), and every activity has a measurable amount of emissions. Reducing emissions while still fulfilling the same societal need is fundamental to climate mitigation, and this is accomplished through six categories of Activity Shifts:

• Type Shift: Transitioning from a high-carbon Activity to a lower-carbon alternative.
• Resource Shift: Shifting from high-carbon resources to lower ones.
• Utilisation Shift: Cut down the activity's frequency or intensity by making it more efficient (to reduce how often it's needed) or reducing the overall demand for that activity.
• Work Efficiency Shift: Making efficiency changes ensures less work is necessary to achieve the same result.
• Resource Efficiency Shift: Shifting towards more efficient use of a resource means less of it is required to produce the same result.
• Carbon Shift: Adding or improving Activities that sequester or utilise CO₂.

Activity Shifts define what transformations will allow cities and regions to strategically reduce emissions while still meeting societal needs. However, for cities to effectively implement these shifts and achieve their climate goals, they require actionable insights, robust data, and financial backing. Access to climate financing is a key barrier many cities face in their climate transitions, but insufficient data and technical knowledge often prevent the robust action plans required by financial bodies.

To operationalise Activity Shifts and help unlock climate financing, ClimateView has co-developed a platform alongside cities across the globe that integrates data, models scenarios and tracks progress in real-time. The ClimateView Platform allows cities to quantify the impacts of their climate actions, make data-driven decisions, and present compelling, evidence-based cases to secure funding. By providing a clear framework for understanding the economic, environmental, and social benefits of their transitions, the platform empowers cities to align their strategies with financial requirements, ultimately making climate action more accessible and achievable.

For more details, download the Data-Driven Transitions white paper here.