Skip to content

E-3 - Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

Total Sector Emissions

In 2019 the IPCC published Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable landmanagement, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems - also known as IPCC SRCCL.

The IPCC (IPCC SRCCL 2019)1 gives us the following breakdown of average emissions within AFOLU during the period 2007-2016:

  • Total world emissions: \(52.0 ± 4.5\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
    • Total AFOLU emissions: \(12.0 ± 2.9\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\) (=23% of total GHG emissions)
      • Agriculture: \(6.2 ± 1.4\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
      • FOLU: \(5.8 ± 2.6\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
        • LUC for food system: \(4.9 ± 2.5\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)

The food sector appears to be the only significant emission source within AFOLU if the “global food system” approach is adopted. Key figures from (IPCC SRCCL 2019)1:

  • Emissions within farm gate and from agricultural land expansion contributing to the global food system represent 16–27% of total anthropogenic emissions (medium confidence).
  • Emissions outside the farm gate represent 5–10% of total anthropogenic emissions (medium confidence).
  • Total GHG emissions from agriculture [increase] to \(11.1 ± 2.9\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\) when including relevant land use. Without intervention, these are likely to increase by about 30–40% by 2050, due to increasing demand based on population and income growth and dietary change (high confidence).
  • Total technical mitigation potential of dietary changes is estimated as \(0.7 ± 8.0\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\) by 2050 (medium confidence).

From this we can draw the conclusion that 2050 estimates are 35% higher than 2019, thus the projection is:

  • Total AFOLU: \(16.2\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
    • Agriculture: \(8.4\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
    • FOLU: \(7.8\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
      • LUC for food system: \(6.6\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)

Furthermore, that the “maximum” potential mitigation from dietary changes (demand-side) is:

  • \(8.0\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
    • Out of \(15.0\) \(GtCO_{2}eq\) \(yr^{–1}\)
      • I.e. 53% of food system emissions 2050 have mitigation measures outlined in IPCC 2019

Emission Breakdown

Agriculture emission breakdown into sub-sectors is diffuse in all IPCC material. Our best guess is a harmonisation of (IPCC SRCCL 2019)1, (Hiraishi et al. 2014)2 and (FAO 2023)3 reports. The following hierarchy is ordered roughly from largest source of emission to smallest per sub-sector:

Mitigation Potential

See M-3 - AFOLU as well as M-6 - Waste.

  1. IPCC SRCCL. 2019. Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Landmanagement, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988. ↩↩↩

  2. Hiraishi, T, T Krug, K Tanabe, N Srivastava, J Baasansuren, M Fukuda, and T. G. Troxler, eds. 2014. 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands. IPCC. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/wetlands/. ↩

  3. FAO. 2023. Agrifood Systems and Land-Related Emissions: Global, Regional and Country Trends, 2001–2021. FAOSTAT Analytical Briefs, No. 73. FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc8543en. ↩